On May 25, the volunteer gray whale counters at the Point Vicente Interpretive Center posed for their season-end photo next to a whiteboard with their final totals: 214 southbound gray whales and 445 northbound. The northbound number was the lowest the American Cetacean Society's Los Angeles chapter had recorded in 42 seasons.
Two months later, NOAA Fisheries published its own count, and it pointed the other way. The federal estimate for the 2025/2026 southbound migration came to 17,750 eastern North Pacific gray whales. The year before, it was 12,890.
Both counts matter in Dana Point as the whales come back. Gray whales heading south pass this coast from late November through mid-February, so the first ones of the season are due any day now. Put together, the two numbers suggest that the whales passing Dana Point this winter may be swimming farther out than a pair of binoculars on the Headlands can reach, even if more of them are making the trip. The boats that cover that open water now leave from a harbor that looks very different from last December.
Two counts, one migration
The two surveys sit at different points along the coast and measure different things. Set side by side, their 2025/2026 results look like this:
| NOAA Fisheries survey | ACS-LA Gray Whale Census | |
|---|---|---|
| Where | Central California coast | Point Vicente, Palos Verdes |
| When | Jan. 5 to Feb. 13, 2026 | Dec. 1, 2025 to May 25, 2026 |
| What it measures | Total population estimate | Whales passing a nearshore station |
| Headline figure | 17,750 whales | 214 southbound, 445 northbound |
| Compared with prior year | Up from a revised 12,890 | Second-lowest southbound; record-low northbound |
NOAA's 15 trained observers logged 302 hours over 39 survey days and counted an estimated 2,563 whales. Their busiest day was January 19, with 158 whales. The agency called the higher estimate "an encouraging finding" after the drop the year before.
The 2024/2025 figure in that comparison is NOAA's revised number. The agency's model reuses every season of data since 2006/2007, so earlier estimates shift a little each time a new year is added. The figure first published in 2025 was 12,950.
Why the bluff and the population disagree
NOAA itself cautions against reading too much into the jump. In the 2026 abundance report, its scientists write that the recent rate of increase is faster than gray whales can reproduce. It also happened while calf production stayed low. So something other than births and deaths has to be moving the number. The possibilities they list include survey error, changes in how easily whales are spotted, and "potential changes in gray whale migratory behavior."
The calf numbers back up that caution. NOAA puts 2025 calf production at 85, the lowest in its time series.
The Point Vicente team brings the same idea from the shore side. Most gray whales off that part of the coast take offshore routes, mainly through the Channel Islands and especially on the trip south. So the station sees only a small share of the population. The census organizers say their counts "fluctuate dramatically" with weather and with shifts in the path the whales prefer, and that a low year does not necessarily mean a smaller population.
Last season, then, a population that NOAA estimates grew by thousands mostly passed the Palos Verdes cliffs out of sight, with the southbound whales favoring the Channel Islands route far from the mainland.
There was some good news in the shore count too. Point Vicente logged 17 southbound calves, up from zero the season before, and 16 northbound calves, up from 8. Census director Alisa Schulman-Janiger summed up the season as "cautious optimism." The northbound calves are the ones Dana Point watches for in spring. Visit Dana Point notes that the whales heading north from mid-February into May often have newborns with them, after calving in Baja California's lagoons from early January to mid-February.
Going out by boat while the Wharf is closed
If the whales are taking routes farther from shore, a boat is the way to reach them. Dana Point has more practice at this than almost anywhere. Visit Dana Point traces local whale watching back to 1971, when Don Hansen ran the harbor's first whale charter out of a small trailer to teach students about the migration. The city earned its Dolphin and Whale Watching Capital of the World trademark in 2013. In 2021 it became the first Whale Heritage Site in the Americas.
Fifty-five years later, whale watching is headed back to trailers. The Wharf closed to the public on November 1, the day after Turk's, Golden Galleon, Art Sea + Gift Chateau, Frisby Cellars, Proud Mary's, Top Brass and Vintage Yacht Club served their last customers for Phase 4 of the harbor revitalization. Dana Point Times reported that Dana Wharf Sportfishing & Whale Watching and Catalina Express would keep running through construction from temporary trailers near the harbor parking structure. Co-owner Donna Kalez told the paper she was moving out of the longtime Wharf location. Dana Wharf's booking page has listed 34675 Golden Lantern as its check-in address, so follow whatever your booking confirmation says, along with the posted signs inside the harbor.
The new parking structure offers up to four hours of free parking, which is enough for a check-in window plus a trip of two to two and a half hours. Here is how the three harbor operators compare:
- Dana Wharf Sportfishing & Whale Watching: Two-hour trips. On November 9 the calendar showed departures at 10 a.m., noon and 2:30 p.m. The posted adult fare is $72.08. Seniors and active-duty military pay $61.48, children 3 to 12 pay $55.12 and infants $9, and adult fares are half price on Tuesdays. If you don't see a whale or a good showing of dolphins, you get a free-return Whale Check that never expires. Arrive 30 minutes early.
- Capt. Dave's Dolphin & Whale Watching Safari: A 2.5-hour Signature Safari from 24440 Dana Point Harbor Drive, with departure times that change by date. The posted fares are $86.92 for adults, against a regular $100, $60.84 for children and $8 for infants up to 12 months. If guests on a regular fare see neither whales nor dolphins, they get a free return Signature Safari within one year. Capt. Dave's asks you to arrive 45 minutes before departure.
- Ocean Institute: At the west end of the harbor at 24200 Dana Point Harbor Drive. It runs Whale and Marine Life Tours aboard the R/V Sea Explorer, and its public cruises and programs run on weekends.
Since conditions at sea set each operator's schedule, read the cancellation and rebooking policy when you book. Visit Dana Point recommends morning departures because the seas are usually calmer then. The two no-sighting policies work differently. Dana Wharf's Whale Check has no expiration date, and Capt. Dave's free return has to be used within a year. That difference matters more in a season when whales may be passing farther out than usual.
When the Headlands are open, and when they aren't
None of this rules out the bluff. Gray whales still pass close to shore some days, and Visit Dana Point points to the harbor jetty and the overlooks in the Dana Point Headlands Conservation Area as places to look. The advice is to go in the morning with binoculars and watch for the spout, a puff of mist above the water.
The Headlands keep a shorter schedule this time of year. The Center for Natural Lands Management switched the Dana Point Preserve trail to winter hours on September 8, 2026:
- Open: Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, 8 a.m. to 4 p.m.
- Closed: Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
That fits well with whale timing, since the trail opens at 8 a.m., when morning seas tend to be calmest. A Wednesday plan needs a different spot, though. The City of Dana Point's Nature Interpretive Center, at the end of Scenic Drive, is open Tuesday through Sunday from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m.
If you'd like to compare your own sightings with a bigger dataset, the Point Vicente census team goes back on the patio December 1 and counts every day in daylight through late May. Their daily tallies are the clearest public record of how close to shore the whales are swimming as the season goes on.
From the Headlands to the harbor, we enjoy following the migration as much as anyone in Dana Point. If watching the whales from your own windows has you wondering what a home with an ocean view is worth this winter, Zoch Real Estate Group can help. Get Your Instant Home Valuation.
